Opinion: What a loss at No. 3 Miami means for Mike Norvell

This is analysis and opinion, not news. Facts are attributed and linked; the conclusions are ours.

No. 3 Miami beat Florida State 43-35 in double overtime Saturday night at Hard Rock Stadium, per ESPN. The game ended on an end-zone interception that stood after review, per our story on the ending.

The question all week was whether a bad night in Miami Gardens would be Mike Norvell's last as Florida State's coach. It was a loss, but it wasn't the bad night people were bracing for. FSU came in as a 19.5-point underdog, per ESPN, and took the No. 3 team in the country to a second overtime. That matters. So do the numbers the loss adds to his record. Here is our case for what it means for Norvell.

What happened tonight

Florida State led 21-14 after three quarters, per ESPN. Ashton Daniels was back on the field one possession after a targeting hit late in the first quarter and threw the 23-yard tying touchdown to Desirrio Riles on that drive (our story). Linebacker Chris Jones, who had been hobbled earlier in the half, stopped M. Fletcher Jr. for no gain on fourth-and-1 at the FSU 18 early in the fourth quarter, per ESPN's play-by-play (our story).

Miami scored twice in the fourth to go up 28-21. With 2:39 left, Daniels found Duce Robinson for a 75-yard touchdown that tied it 28-28 (our story). Robinson caught a 20-yard touchdown in the first overtime. Javian Mallory answered with a 25-yard touchdown run for Miami. In the second overtime, Darian Mensah threw a 3-yard touchdown to Malachi Toney, and Toney threw the two-point conversion to C. Barkate for a 43-35 Miami lead, per ESPN (our story).

FSU did all of that banged up. Running back Ousmane Kromah was carted off late in the first half with what Noles247 and Warchant reported as a left ankle injury (our story). Defensive back Nehemiah Chandler was helped to the sideline and linebacker Omar Graham Jr. went to the locker room in the second half, according to FSU reporters. FSU has not announced a diagnosis for any of them.

This wasn't the loss that was supposed to end it

The reporting going into the weekend was specific. On3's Pete Nakos reported that Board of Trustees chair Peter Collins "has long supported Norvell and has pushed back on a midseason coaching change," but that sources had signaled "a lopsided road loss to rival Miami on Saturday night could change that," as quoted by FSU Wire. Warchant's preview framed it the same way, asking whether "a lopsided loss" would be "the final page of the Mike Norvell Era at FSU."

A double-overtime loss isn't lopsided by any definition. A team that has quit on its coach doesn't erase a seven-point deficit with 2:52 to play against the No. 3 team, on the road, with its starting running back on the sideline. If the people deciding Norvell's future were waiting for proof that this roster had stopped playing for him, they didn't get it. Florida State has not announced any change.

But the numbers still move the wrong way

A loss is still a loss, and the record doesn't grade on effort. Norvell came in 41-37 at Florida State, per On3. The loss makes that 41-38. FSU was 10-20 overall and 4-15 in ACC play since winning the 2023 ACC championship game, according to the Tallahassee Democrat. A loss makes it 10-21 and 4-16. FSU Wire noted the Louisville loss was the Seminoles' 11th straight on the road. Tonight was the 12th.

There's also a pattern that tonight added to. CBS Sports pointed out that FSU blew a 21-6 lead at Alabama and a 14-0 lead at Louisville this season. Tonight FSU led after three quarters and led again in the first overtime. Close isn't the same as finishing, and that's the part of this program that hasn't been fixed.

The defense question

Miami finished with 583 total yards, 257 of them rushing, per ESPN's box score. Nakos also reported that "if Florida State plays Miami tight but still faces issues on the defensive side of the ball, a potential change at defensive coordinator has not been ruled out," as quoted by FSU Wire. FSU played Miami tight. Whether tonight counts as "issues" for Tony White's defense depends on how much credit you give a unit that was losing players all night. We'd lean toward judging that over the next five games, not one.

The money and the people in charge

Norvell is under contract through Dec. 31, 2031 and is scheduled to earn $10.3 million this year, not counting bonuses, the Tallahassee Democrat reported. Published estimates of his buyout this month range from $46.7 million, per CBS Sports, to roughly $51 million if he is let go during the season, per On3. Both outlets report a duty-to-mitigate clause that would reduce what FSU owes if he takes another job.

FSU fired athletic director Michael Alford on Sept. 14, the Democrat reported, and Bruce Warwick is the interim AD, according to CBS Sports. CBS argued that the buyout and the lack of a full-time AD are reasons Norvell "may be safe for the time being." A competitive loss to the No. 3 team doesn't change either of those things, and it doesn't give anyone a fresh reason to spend that kind of money in the middle of October.

The bowl math

The loss drops FSU to 3-4 with five games left. After an open date, the Seminoles host Clemson on Oct. 31, play at Boston College on Nov. 7 and at Pitt on Friday, Nov. 13, host NC State on Nov. 21 and close at home on Nov. 27, per FSU's schedule. A team needs six wins to be bowl eligible, so FSU needs three of those five, two of them on the road.

CBS Sports wrote before tonight that "Norvell could save himself with a strong run of form" over that stretch. That's where we land too.

The bottom line

Our view: a loss like this one probably buys Norvell time, but it doesn't buy him a verdict. It takes away the scenario that was most likely to force a midseason decision, and it shows a team still fighting for its coach. It also leaves him with a losing record in a seventh season, a road losing streak that keeps growing, and a program that keeps letting leads get away. The next five games will decide this, starting with Clemson on Oct. 31. That's a fair way to judge a coach, and after tonight it's probably the one FSU will use.

Next up: FSU has an open date next week, then hosts Clemson on Saturday, Oct. 31 at Doak Campbell Stadium, per seminoles.com.

Sources: ESPN game data; On3 (Pete Nakos), Norvell buyout details; FSU Wire (Matthew Lenix), quoting On3's Pete Nakos; Tallahassee Democrat (Dan Rorabaugh); CBS Sports (Austin Nivison); Warchant/On3 preview; FSU game notes (seminoles.com)